5 ‘Lottery Ticket’ Stocks That Could Soar 200%
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Each one of these five small-cap stocks has the potential to achieve multi-bagger status
In the stock market, risk and reward are correlated. That is, across all financial markets, the maxim is that as risk goes up, so does reward. Because of this, you won’t find many low-risk stocks with multi-bagger potential. Instead, all the stocks with multi-bagger potential are often also accompanied with big risks.
Thus, if you’re looking for a multi-bagger stock that could rise 200% or more, it’s safe to say that you are looking at stocks with big risk profiles. The key in picking winners in this group is to identify the stocks that are more likely to go boom than bust. That is, find the stocks where the upside is compelling enough — and the probability of the stock realizing that upside is high enough — to more than compensate for the risks.
Don’t have the time to do all that analysis across hundreds of small cap stocks? No worries. I’ve done some of that leg work for you. Picture being able to pick “Apple Computer” when Steve Jobs was still slumming it barefoot around Cupertino — before any Wall Street analysts pegged it or CNBC profiled it. And right now, we’re in the middle of a new revolution in computing technology. This is just the first wave. There will be a second wave, and a third, but you’ve got just a single chance to buy these companies at bargain-basement levels.
Without further ado, then, let’s take a look at five small-cap stocks that could soar 200% or more over the next five years.
Plug Power (PLUG)
Current Price: $2.80
Potential 2024 Price: $12
Five Year Upside Potential: ~330%
First up, we have hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG). Most infamous for its 99.9% decline from 2000 to 2019, PLUG stock actually now has all the ingredients of a potential multi-bagger over the next few years.
Here’s the logic. Hydrogen fuel cell technology has lagged electric battery technology in terms of alternative fuel adoption for several years. But hydrogen tech is starting to catch on. This is especially true in the commercial market, where large enterprises are starting to value the longer life and shorter re-charging times hydrogen fuel cells offer versus their electric battery counterparts. This is largely why Plug Power had reported 20%-plus revenue growth since 2016.
Management expects this big growth to continue, driven by expansion of HFC adoption in core commercial markets. Specifically, management is pointing towards $1 billion in revenue by 2024, with $200 million in EBITDA. Is that possible? Yes, but unlikely. Nonetheless, if Plug Power does hit those aggressive targets, the numbers shake out for the company to net about $0.50 in EPS by 2024 and likely somewhere around $0.60 in EPS by 2025.
Apply a growth stock average 20-times forward multiple to that $0.60 EPS base in 2025. That implies a 2024 price target of $12, which means that in an “everything goes right” scenario, PLUG stock could rally more than 300% from here over the next few years.
Aphria (APHA)
Current Price: $6
Potential 2024 Price: $24
Five Year Upside Potential: ~300%
Next up, we have small-cap Canadian cannabis producer Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA). Aphria is most famous on Wall Street as being the first Canadian cannabis company to strike a profit. But the company — and stock — could be so much more than that in the long run.
Consider this. Most company and analyst estimates peg the global cannabis market as growing to $200 billion in annual revenues within the next 10 to 15 years. Let’s call it 15 years. Thus, Aphria is at the epicenter of a market that will be $200 billion large in 15 years.
Sure, Aphria isn’t a big player in that market. But they have a unique and established value prop as the low cost, discount player in the market. That value prop has enduring demand. So long as Aphria maintains that value prop and dominates the discount cannabis niche, this company will forever command a respectable share in the cannabis market.
Extrapolate it out. Maybe Aphria nets just 2% share in 15 years. In a $200 billion market, that equates to about $4 billion in revenue. The company already has sky high gross margins. They should pan out around 55% at scale, while big revenue growth will drive the opex rate down to a much more normal 30% in the long run. Therefore, with Aphria, we are talking about a company that within 15 years, could net 25% operating margins on $4 billion in revenue.
Net net, that combination makes $3.50 in EPS seem doable in 15 years. Based on a market average 16-times forward multiple, that implies a 14-year-forward price target for APHA stock of $56. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 5-year-forward price target of $24 — about 300% above today’s price tag.
Jumia (JMIA)
Current Price: $10
Potential 2024 Price: $30
Five Year Upside Potential: ~200%
The third stock on this list of potential multi-baggers is African e-commerce company Jumia (NYSE:JMIA).
The bull thesis on JMIA stock is that Jumia turns into the JD.Com (NASDAQ:JD) of Africa. That is, with an internet penetration rate that is only 40% but rapidly rising, Africa appears positioned for a digital economic renaissance in the 2020s that will look very similar to China’s digital economic renaissance of the 2010s, which birthed many multi-billion dollar companies, like Chinese e-commerce juggernaut JD.
Here are the numbers. China will close the decade at 60% internet penetration, after starting the decade around 40% internet penetration. Let’s say Africa follows a similar 40% to 60% internet penetration ramp in the 2020s. At the same time, Africa projects to have the fastest growing population in the 2020s, and that population skews young. The implication? Of the 1.7 billion people that are projected to be in Africa by 2030, around 1 billion will be on the internet, and those 1 billion will largely skew young and therefore be highly engaged in the digital channel.
Let’s say Jumia controls just 10% of that market, for 100 million active buyers Let’s also say that those buyers spend a very pedestrian $400 per year on Jumia, versus the thousands per year consumers spend on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). That would give Jumia a $40 billion gross merchandise value by 2030, which with a historically average 15% take rate, equates to $6 billion in revenue.
Further assuming Amazon-like 5% operating margins, that should flow into $300 million in operating profits, which should easily flow into $200 million-plus in net profits. Based on a growth stock average 20-times forward earnings multiple, that implies a $4 billion valuation by 2029. On 80 million shares, you are talking a $50 price target by 2029. Using a 10% discount rate, that equates to a $30 price target by 2024.
New Age Beverages (NBEV)
Current Price: $3
Potential 2024 Price: $15
Five Year Upside Potential: ~400%
The fourth stock on this list of potential small-cap multi-baggers is healthy beverage company New Age Beverages (NASDAQ:NBEV).
New Age Beverages is trying to be the world’s leading healthy beverage company. It hasn’t worked out so far. Just look at NBEV stock over the past year. The chart isn’t pretty. But thanks to a series of acquisitions, New Age Beverages has finally equipped itself with a respectable portfolio of healthy beverages that appear to be on the up and up, including Marley, Coco-Libre, Bucha Live Kombucha, Evian water and Illy coffee. New Age Beverages has consequently reported very healthy mid to high single digit organic sales growth so far in 2019.
I don’t see secular health awareness trends going anywhere anytime soon. These trends should create a rising tide which will lift most boats in the healthy beverage market, including New Age’s healthy drinks. Further adding firepower to the top-line will be New Age’s push into CBD-infused beverages in the very big U.S. cannabis market.
Big picture — the stars have aligned for New Age Beverages to report steady low double digit revenue growth over the next few years. Alongside that healthy revenue growth, margins will move higher because of positive operating leverage and gross margin expansion from a push into higher margin products. Assuming double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, EPS here should reach around $0.75 by 2025.
Throwing a consumer discretionary sector average 20-times forward multiple on that $0.75 EPS target, we arrive at a 2024 price target for NBEV stock of $15. That is five-fold the current price tag on the stock.
NIO (NIO)
Current Price: $3
Potential 2024 Price: $14
Five Year Upside Potential: ~370%
Last, but not least, on this list of potential breakout small-cap stocks is Chinese luxury electric vehicle maker NIO (NASDAQ:NIO).
Often called the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) of China, NIO hasn’t quite lived up to that reputation. Say what you will about Tesla, but from day one, the company’s delivery volumes have been on the up and up, and the company has consistently grown reach, deliveries and revenues over a multi-year period.
The same has not been true over at NIO. NIO started delivering luxury electric vehicles about a year ago. They company started off red hot, delivering 3,600 vehicles in 3Q18 and nearly 8,000 cars in 4Q18. But the growth narrative has come undone in 2019 amid a massive slowdown in China’s auto market, and NIO’s quarterly delivery volumes are at 3,500 today… and rapidly dropping.
In the big picture, there are simply way too many EV companies in China, and as the market cools, it is consolidating around a few players. The implication is that most Chinese EV companies will go bust, and a few will go boom. Probabilities say NIO goes bust, hence the $3 price tag for NIO stock. But given that this company has crafted a niche for itself in the luxury market, there is a possibility NIO goes boom.
Let’s say it does go boom. I think China’s auto market hits 30 million cars by 2030 and that 25% of those will be EVs — so about 7.5 million EVs. NIO can maybe control 5% of the market, implying around 375,000 annual deliveries. Assuming a $50,000 ASP and auto average 10% operating margins, I think that production volume easily flows into about $1.40 in EPS by 2030.
Assuming a market average 16-times forward earnings multiple, $1.40 in 2030 projected EPS should produce a 2029 price target of over $22. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 2024 price target for NIO stock of roughly $14 — almost 400% above today’s price tag.
Small-cap stocks have the potential to climb 500% or 5,000%-plus. At this very moment, you can find the next Netflix … the next Chipotle … the next Starbucks … the next Square … the next Canopy Growth. These stocks are like lottery tickets. They pay off BIG … or they eventually go to zero. It’s a gamble. But with the right guidance, you can pick small-cap stocks with tenbagger potential before the market bids them 5,000% higher.
As of this writing on September 20, 2019, Luke Lango was long APHA, JD, AMZN and TSLA.
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Category: Small-Cap Stocks
